Week 4 runs Thursday 1 October through Monday 5 October. It opens with a divisional game in Cleveland, includes the earliest kickoff of the American day from Tottenham, and closes in the Superdome.
The full Week 4 board
| Matchup | Kickoff / TV | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 1 Oct | |||
| Pittsburgh @ ClevelandHuntington Bank Field, Cleveland OH | 8:15 PMPrime Video | PIT -2.5 | 40.5 |
| Sun 4 Oct | |||
| Indianapolis v WashingtonTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | 9:30 AMNFL Net | WSH -1.5 | 50.5 |
| New England @ BuffaloHighmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY | 1:00 PMCBS | BUF -3 | 49.5 |
| NY Jets @ ChicagoSoldier Field, Chicago IL | 1:00 PMFOX | CHI -8.5 | 45.5 |
| Jacksonville @ CincinnatiPaycor Stadium, Cincinnati OH | 1:00 PMCBS | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 |
| Arizona @ NY GiantsMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ | 1:00 PMCBS | NYG -7 | 45.5 |
| LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaLincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA | 1:00 PMFOX | LAR -1.5 | 47.5 |
| Green Bay @ Tampa BayRaymond James Stadium, Tampa FL | 1:00 PMFOX | GB -1.5 | 47.5 |
| Tennessee @ BaltimoreM&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore MD | 1:00 PMCBS | BAL -8.5 | 47.5 |
| Dallas @ HoustonNRG Stadium, Houston TX | 1:00 PMFOX | HOU -2.5 | 47.5 |
| Miami @ MinnesotaU.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis MN | 4:05 PMFOX | MIN -7.5 | 43.5 |
| Kansas City @ Las VegasAllegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV | 4:25 PMCBS | KC -5.5 | 43.5 |
| Denver @ San FranciscoLevi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA | 4:25 PMCBS | SF -2.5 | 46.5 |
| LA Chargers @ SeattleLumen Field, Seattle WA | 4:25 PMCBS | SEA -3 | 45.5 |
| Detroit @ CarolinaBank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC | 8:20 PMNBC | DET -3 | 47.5 |
| Mon 5 Oct | |||
| Atlanta @ New OrleansCaesars Superdome, New Orleans LA | 8:15 PMESPN | NO -2.5 | 45.5 |
Lines and totals as posted at time of writing. Numbers move — check current pricing before betting anything.
What this board looks like
No double digits, anywhere
Week 3 produced an 11.5 and a 9.5. Week 4 tops out at 8.5, with Chicago hosting the Jets and Baltimore hosting Tennessee.
That is a market with no strong convictions about any matchup on the board. Eight of sixteen games sit at three points or fewer, which continues the pattern Week 3 established: the obvious gaps have been priced, and what remains is close.
Five divisional games
Pittsburgh at Cleveland, New England at Buffalo, Kansas City at Las Vegas, the Chargers at Seattle, and Atlanta at New Orleans. That is nearly a third of the slate.
Divisional games historically finish closer than the number suggests. Teams that meet twice a season know each other's personnel, tendencies and coaching habits intimately, and familiarity compresses margins. None of these five is priced above 5.5, which suggests the market already knows it.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland opens the week with a total of 40.5 — the lowest on the board. A cold-weather divisional game on a short week is exactly where points go to disappear.
London at 9:30 in the morning
Indianapolis and Washington meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, the third international game of the young season after Melbourne and Rio.
The handicapping considerations repeat, and they matter every time. Neither team is at home, so conventional home advantage is neutral. Both squads have travelled, both have lost a normal preparation week to logistics, and both are playing at an hour their bodies do not recognise as football time.
What is different here is the total: 50.5, the second-highest on the board. The market expects points from a game where both teams are tired and displaced, which is a view worth noticing rather than assuming.
Three weeks in: what has actually been established
By Week 4 the sample is large enough to be suggestive and still too small to be conclusive. Three games against three different opponents in three different settings is genuinely more informative than one, and it is not a season.
What has changed since Week 1 is that the market now has evidence rather than projection. The tight spreads across this board are not uncertainty in the Week 1 sense — they are a market that has looked at the evidence and concluded these teams really are close.
What to look at this week
- The short week. Pittsburgh and Cleveland played Thursday, meaning compressed preparation for a physical divisional game. It usually shows in execution rather than in the final margin.
- Post-international recovery. Teams returning from overseas games have historically found the following week difficult. Worth remembering when Baltimore and Dallas appear again after Rio.
- Injury accumulation. Four weeks of football produces a real injury list, and reports become more informative as the season settles.
- Totals in cold-weather venues. Buffalo, Cleveland and Chicago are all hosting. October is not December, but the direction of travel on those totals is downward from here.
Reading the numbers on this page
Line shows the favourite and the points they must win by. Total is the combined score expected from both teams, and you bet whether the result finishes above or below it.
The half points prevent ties — a team cannot win by three and a half, so -3.5 cannot push while -3 can. With eight games on this board at three points or fewer, that distinction decides a great many bets. Full mechanics: how to read betting lines.
Our picks and our record
We publish free picks daily and grade every one publicly the following morning, wins and losses both. The record page lists every pick since day one with the date and result, including the losing runs.
The record file is version-controlled, so every change carries a timestamp and nothing can be quietly removed. To evaluate any pick service including ours, our guide on spotting a fake pick record lists the tests worth applying.
Related
- NFL Week 1 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
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- NFL Week 3 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
- Today's free picks
- NFL betting hub
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