NFL picks that go beyond the box score. We analyze line movement, sharp action, situational trends, and injury reports to give you the most complete NFL handicapping available for free online.
The point spread exists to level the playing field and attract equal action on both sides. NFL lines reflect public perception not always true team strength. When public perception is wrong and a popular team is overvalued there is a betting edge.
Key Concept: A team can be better than its opponent and still not cover the spread. The spread is about margin not about who wins. A 3-point favorite that wins by 2 is a loss against the spread even though they won the game outright.
| Number | Why It Matters | How Often |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Field goal margin | About 15 percent of all NFL games |
| 7 | Touchdown plus extra point | About 9 percent of all NFL games |
| 10 | Touchdown plus field goal | About 6 percent of all NFL games |
| 6 | Two field goals | About 5 percent of all NFL games |
What NFL bets have the best value?
Single-game point spreads and totals at standard -110 juice offer the best value. The house edge is lowest on these bets compared to parlays and teasers.
How do NFL spreads work?
The spread gives points to the underdog and takes points from the favorite. A -6.5 favorite must win by 7 or more to cover. A +6.5 underdog must lose by 6 or fewer or win outright to cover.
What time do NFL lines open?
Lines for the following week typically open Sunday night or Monday morning after that week's games finish.
Should I bet on DraftKings or FanDuel?
Both are excellent. Having accounts at both lets you always get the best available number on every game.
How many NFL picks should I bet per week?
We recommend 3-5 plays per week maximum. Being selective is the hallmark of long-term winning bettors.