How We Grade, Count and Report

Most handicapping sites publish a record and ask you to take it on faith. This section is the opposite: the rules we grade by, the price we assume, the things our record cannot tell you, and the arithmetic you would need to check us. If something here reads as less flattering than the usual pitch, that is the point.

The short version

A pick is published before the game starts. It is graded against the official final score. Wins are counted at -110 unless the pick says otherwise, which means a winner returns 0.909 units and a loser costs 1.00. Pushes count as neither. Nothing is removed after the fact, and no pick is added to the record that was not public before kickoff. That is the whole system. The pages below explain each piece and, more usefully, what each piece fails to capture.

Why this section exists

A betting record is the easiest thing on the internet to fake. You can drop losers, backdate winners, quote prices nobody could get, count a half-unit play as a full unit when it wins, or simply stop publishing during a bad month and resume when things turn. None of that requires lying outright. It only requires leaving the rules unwritten, so that every ambiguous case resolves in your favour. Writing the rules down in advance is what removes that option.

What you should do with any record, including ours

Treat it as one input, not as evidence. A few hundred graded picks is a small sample against the variance in sports betting, and we say so plainly on the sample size page. Look at whether the rules were fixed in advance, whether losses are present in the same detail as wins, and whether the price assumed is one you could actually have taken. Then decide. A site that flinches at those questions has told you something.

The four pages in this section

Grading rules covers pushes, cancellations, line moves and the exact moment a pick is locked. Units explains why we report in units rather than dollars and how a unit is sized. Closing line value explains the one measurement that says something about skill before the results come in. Sample size and variance explains how much of any record, ours included, is noise. The last page sets out what our record does not claim.

Corrections

If you find an error in a graded result, send it with the game and the date. Confirmed errors are corrected on the record page and the correction is noted rather than quietly absorbed. A record that has never been corrected in public is either very short or not being checked.

Common Questions

Is the published record independently audited?

No. It is self-reported, and you should weigh it accordingly. What we can offer instead is that every pick was published publicly before the game, so the claims are checkable against timestamps rather than resting on our word alone.

Do you remove losing picks?

No. A pick that is published is graded, win or lose. The per-sport breakdown includes the losing sports at the same level of detail as the winning one.

What price do you assume when grading?

Standard -110 unless a pick specifies a different number. At -110 a winning unit returns 0.909 units, not 0.91. The difference is small on one bet and visible across a few hundred, which is why we use the exact figure.

Does a bigger record mean better picks?

Not by itself. Volume raises confidence in a measured win rate but it also gives variance more room to flatter or punish. The sample size page works through what our current count can and cannot support.

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