Week 11 runs Thursday 19 November through Monday 23 November. Thirteen games — six teams on bye, the largest number of the season.
The full Week 11 board
| Matchup | Kickoff / TV | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 19 Nov | |||
| Indianapolis @ HoustonNRG Stadium, Houston TX | 8:15 PMPrime Video | HOU -5.5 | 45.5 |
| Sun 22 Nov | |||
| Miami @ BuffaloHighmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY | 1:00 PMFOX | BUF -11.5 | 47.5 |
| New Orleans @ ChicagoSoldier Field, Chicago IL | 1:00 PMFOX | CHI -6.5 | 46.5 |
| Tennessee @ DallasAT&T Stadium, Arlington TX | 1:00 PMFOX | DAL -6.5 | 48.5 |
| Tampa Bay @ DetroitFord Field, Detroit MI | 1:00 PMCBS | DET -4.5 | 49.5 |
| Arizona @ Kansas CityArrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO | 1:00 PMCBS | KC -11.5 | 44.5 |
| Jacksonville @ NY GiantsMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ | 1:00 PMCBS | JAX -1.5 | 46.5 |
| Baltimore @ CarolinaBank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC | 1:00 PMFOX | BAL -4.5 | 46.5 |
| NY Jets @ LA ChargersSoFi Stadium, Inglewood CA | 4:05 PMFOX | LAC -9.5 | 41.5 |
| Las Vegas @ DenverEmpower Field at Mile High, Denver CO | 4:25 PMCBS | DEN -7.5 | 41.5 |
| Pittsburgh @ PhiladelphiaLincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA | 4:25 PMCBS | PHI -5.5 | 42.5 |
| Minnesota v San FranciscoEstadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico | 8:20 PMNBC | SF -3.5 | 46.5 |
| Mon 23 Nov | |||
| Cincinnati @ WashingtonNorthwest Stadium, Landover MD | 8:15 PMESPN | CIN -1.5 | 52.5 |
Lines and totals as posted at time of writing. Numbers move — check current pricing before betting anything.
Mexico City, and the altitude nobody prices
Minnesota and San Francisco meet at Estadio Banorte in the Sunday night slot — the ninth international game of the season and the first in prime time rather than the 9:30 AM window.
The prime-time placement matters. The morning games have carried the disruption of an unfamiliar body clock; this one is played at a normal hour for both teams, removing one variable that has run through every other international fixture this season.
What replaces it is altitude. Mexico City sits at roughly 7,300 feet — higher than Denver, which is the only comparable environment in the league. Thin air affects two things: player conditioning, particularly in the fourth quarter, and ball flight, with kicks and passes carrying further than either side is used to.
Both teams face identical conditions, so altitude confers no advantage in itself. What it does is add fatigue and unfamiliarity to a game where neither side is acclimatised — and fatigue tends to show late.
Two 11.5s on one board
Buffalo lays 11.5 at home to Miami; Kansas City lays 11.5 at home to Arizona. It is the first time this season two double-digit spreads have appeared on the same slate.
Buffalo–Miami is divisional, which continues the season's oddest pattern: the biggest numbers keep appearing in the matchups where familiarity historically compresses margins.
And Arizona is on the wrong end of a large spread for the fifth time in six weeks — 13.5, 7.5, 10.5, 13.5 and now 11.5. The market's view has been consistent and unrelenting.
Six teams on bye
Thirteen games is the shortest slate of the season so far. From here the schedule fills back out toward the December run-in, but this week is thin.
The practical consequence is the same as always: a team returning from a bye has had extra recovery and preparation, and by late November the injury lists are long enough for that to matter more than it did in October.
The rest of the board
Cincinnati at Washington carries 52.5
The highest total on the board, on Monday night, outdoors in Landover in late November. That is the market backing two offences against the calendar — and the line is just 1.5, so it expects a close, high-scoring game.
Two games at 41.5
The Jets at the Chargers and Las Vegas at Denver share the low. The Chargers game is indoors at SoFi, which makes that number a verdict on the offences rather than the weather.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia at 42.5
A low number for a game between two teams with genuine offensive personnel. Late November in Philadelphia is not December, but the direction is set.
Reading the numbers on this page
Line shows the favourite and the points they must win by. Total is the combined score expected from both teams, and you bet whether the result finishes above or below it.
The half points prevent ties. Full mechanics: how to read betting lines.
Our picks and our record
We publish free picks daily and grade every one publicly the following morning, wins and losses both. The record page lists every pick since day one with the date and result, including the losing runs.
The record file is version-controlled, so every change carries a timestamp and nothing can be quietly removed. To evaluate any pick service including ours, our guide on spotting a fake pick record lists the tests worth applying.
Related
- NFL Week 10 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
- NFL Week 9 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
- Today's free picks
- Our complete record
- NFL betting hub
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