Week 16 runs Christmas Eve through Monday 28 December, with four games whose kickoff times are still to be confirmed. Sixteen games in total.
The full Week 16 board
| Matchup | Kickoff / TV | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Dec — Christmas Eve | |||
| Houston @ PhiladelphiaLincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA | 8:15 PMPrime Video | PHI -2.5 | 37.5 |
| Fri 25 Dec — Christmas Day | |||
| Green Bay @ ChicagoSoldier Field, Chicago IL | 1:00 PMNetflix | CHI -1.5 | 47.5 |
| Buffalo @ DenverEmpower Field at Mile High, Denver CO | 4:30 PMNetflix | BUF -1.5 | 46.5 |
| LA Rams @ SeattleLumen Field, Seattle WA | 8:15 PMFOX | SEA -1.5 | 47.5 |
| Sun 27 Dec | |||
| LA Chargers @ MiamiHard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL | 1:00 PMFOX | LAC -7 | 45.5 |
| Arizona @ New OrleansCaesars Superdome, New Orleans LA | 1:00 PMFOX | NO -5.5 | 44.5 |
| New England @ NY JetsMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ | 1:00 PMCBS | NE -6.5 | 40.5 |
| Cleveland @ BaltimoreM&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore MD | 1:00 PMCBS | BAL -10 | 43.5 |
| Tennessee @ Las VegasAllegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV | 4:05 PMFOX | — | 42.5 |
| San Francisco @ Kansas CityArrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO | 4:25 PMCBS | KC -3 | 46.5 |
| Jacksonville @ DallasAT&T Stadium, Arlington TX | 8:20 PMNBC | DAL -3 | 51.5 |
| Mon 28 Dec | |||
| NY Giants @ DetroitFord Field, Detroit MI | 8:15 PMESPN | DET -4.5 | 49.5 |
| Flex — date and time TBD | |||
| Tampa Bay @ AtlantaMercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA | TBD— | TB -1.5 | 45.5 |
| Cincinnati @ IndianapolisLucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN | TBD— | CIN -1.5 | 52.5 |
| Washington @ MinnesotaU.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis MN | TBD— | MIN -2.5 | 46.5 |
| Carolina @ PittsburghAcrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh PA | TBD— | PIT -3.5 | 41.5 |
Lines and totals as posted at time of writing. Tennessee at Las Vegas shows a total only; the spread was not posted when this was compiled. Numbers move — check current pricing before betting anything.
Christmas Day: three games, all at 1.5
Green Bay at Chicago, Buffalo at Denver, and the Rams at Seattle. Two on Netflix, one on FOX.
The striking thing is the pricing. All three are at 1.5 points. Three games, three coin flips, on the biggest single day of the regular season.
That is unlikely to be coincidence. The league schedules its marquee dates for competitive games, and by Week 16 it knows which matchups will still matter. Christmas gets the fixtures most likely to be close.
Buffalo at Denver
A cold-weather team travelling to altitude on Christmas afternoon. Denver's home advantage is among the few genuine venue effects in the league — visiting players are not acclimatised to 5,280 feet, and it shows late. Buffalo laying 1.5 on the road there is the market rating them clearly higher on neutral ground.
Green Bay at Soldier Field
The league's oldest rivalry, on Christmas Day, in Chicago, priced at a point and a half with a 47.5 total. December at Soldier Field usually suppresses scoring; the market is not expecting it to here.
37.5 in Philadelphia: the season's floor
Houston at Philadelphia on Christmas Eve carries 37.5 — the lowest total of the entire 2026 season, below the 38.5 in Cleveland in Week 10 and the 39.5s that appeared through November.
The seasonal pattern we have tracked across sixteen boards is complete: 40.5, 39.5, 38.5, 39.5, 37.5. Outdoor totals in northern venues have declined steadily from October to Christmas, and this is the bottom.
Two defences the market respects, in Philadelphia, four days before the end of December. There is not much argument to be made for points.
The flex games
Four fixtures carry no confirmed kickoff time: Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Cincinnati at Indianapolis, Washington at Minnesota, and Carolina at Pittsburgh.
Flexing moves late-season games between slots depending on what is at stake. The practical consequence for a bettor is that the number exists before the timing does, and a game moved into a prime slot attracts different money than one buried in the early window.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis carries 52.5, the highest total on the board, which suggests it is a candidate for a better slot.
Baltimore -10, the only double digit
Cleveland at Baltimore is the sole double-digit spread, and it is divisional — the second meeting between the two after Week 8.
The season-long pattern has been that divisional games price tightly and the biggest numbers still keep appearing in them. Both things have been true all year.
Reading the numbers on this page
Line shows the favourite and the points they must win by. Total is the combined score expected from both teams, and you bet whether the result finishes above or below it.
The half points prevent ties — a team cannot win by one and a half, so all three Christmas games can be settled without a push. Full mechanics: how to read betting lines.
Our picks and our record
We publish free picks daily and grade every one publicly the following morning, wins and losses both. The record page lists every pick since day one with the date and result, including the losing runs.
The record file is version-controlled, so every change carries a timestamp and nothing can be quietly removed. To evaluate any pick service including ours, our guide on spotting a fake pick record lists the tests worth applying.
Related
- NFL Week 15 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
- NFL Week 14 2026 — schedule, lines and totals
- Today's free picks
- Our complete record
- NFL betting hub
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