How We Grade Picks

These rules are fixed in advance so that no ambiguous case gets resolved after the fact in whichever direction looks better. Where a rule is unflattering to us, it is still the rule.

When a pick locks

A pick is locked at the moment it is published, which is always before the scheduled start. The line printed with the pick is the line it is graded at. If the market moves after publication, the pick is still graded at the published number, whether that move went our way or against us. This cuts both ways deliberately: we do not get credit for a better closing number, and we do not get relief from a worse one.

Pushes

A push is graded as a push. It is counted in the number of picks made but contributes zero units, and it is excluded from the win rate denominator. This is the standard convention and it is the honest one. Counting pushes as wins inflates a record; counting them as losses deflates it; excluding them from the record entirely hides volume.

Postponements, cancellations and suspended games

If a game is postponed and replayed on another date, the pick is void and graded as no action. It is not carried over to the new date, because the circumstances that justified it may no longer hold. If a game is suspended and completed later, we follow the sportsbook convention for that league. A pick on a player who does not appear is void.

Player props and the did-not-play problem

A prop on a player who is scratched, rested or injured out before the game is void, in line with how sportsbooks settle them. A prop on a player who plays but is withdrawn early is graded on the actual result, win or lose. We do not void a prop simply because an early exit cost us the bet. That would turn the rule into a one-way option.

Parlays and multi-leg plays

A parlay is graded as a single unit of risk at its combined price, not as several separate picks. A voided leg reduces the parlay to its remaining legs at the recalculated price. Parlays are tracked separately from straight plays because mixing them distorts both: a parlay record and a sides record are not the same measurement and averaging them tells you nothing useful about either.

What a result is graded against

The official final score as published by the league, including overtime unless the market specified regulation only. We do not grade against corrected scores issued days later except where the league itself revises the official result, in which case the correction is applied and noted.

Common Questions

What if the line I got was different from the published line?

Your result will differ from ours, and on a half-point in the wrong spot it can be the whole bet. We grade at the published number because it is the only one we can document. Shopping for a better number is the single highest-value habit available to a bettor, and a good price is worth more than most picks.

Are picks ever edited after publication?

The analysis is not rewritten after a result. A typo in a team name or a number is corrected and the correction is noted. A pick is never changed to a different side.

How are pushes shown in the record?

They appear in the pick count and contribute zero units. They are left out of the win percentage, which is why the wins and losses may not sum to the total number of picks graded.

Do you grade live bets?

Live plays are graded the same way as pre-game plays, at the price published with them. Because live prices move in seconds, they are reported separately rather than mixed into the pre-game record.

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