Flat units keep you alive; Kelly tells you what your edge is worth. This calculator does both — and tells you honestly when the right bet is zero.
Only meaningful if your win estimate is honest. Garbage in, bankrupt out.
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GET TODAY’S FREE PICKS →The bettors who last are rarely the ones who picked the most winners in a hot month; they are the ones still solvent after the cold one. Flat staking at 1-2% of bankroll means a ten-bet losing streak — which happens to everyone, including professionals — costs a survivable dent instead of the whole roll. Our bankroll management guide covers the full system, including when (and whether) to resize units.
The Kelly Criterion answers one question: given your edge, what fraction of bankroll maximizes long-term growth? Its honesty cuts both ways — feed it a real edge and it sizes your advantage; feed it wishful thinking and it sizes your bankruptcy. That is why the halved version is the professional default and why a $0 output deserves respect. Building the win estimates that make Kelly meaningful is the hard part; our handicapping methodology shows how we build ours, and the verified record shows how it has gone.